Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 39.908368 43.560954 47.585659 52.385950 58.004597 64.435598 72.446266
2025-02-16 34.214672 38.987247 44.635948 51.945676 61.360586 73.393052 90.503553
2025-02-23 30.804634 36.068618 42.594022 51.519312 63.833344 80.962860 108.175722
2025-03-02 28.134299 33.581827 40.563357 50.514530 64.996046 86.584952 124.383879
2025-03-09 26.166490 31.723989 39.043824 49.846297 66.314777 92.464647 142.787307
2025-03-16 24.156768 29.604655 36.918221 47.981924 65.431962 94.499058 154.848608
2025-03-23 23.532469 29.275014 37.193356 49.604742 70.186746 107.084153 193.853740
2025-03-30 22.418512 28.170134 36.245679 49.216934 71.505664 113.693054 223.252009
2025-04-06 21.357965 27.060856 35.189466 48.518941 72.137910 119.067811 253.036171
2025-04-13 20.140166 25.652012 33.583902 46.765088 70.595490 119.515584 268.849353
2025-04-20 19.868991 25.588044 33.987165 48.350757 75.492685 135.507941 351.533718
2025-04-27 19.573136 25.462589 34.275266 49.756649 80.285171 153.062493 469.044263
2025-05-04 19.011607 24.940547 33.952525 50.150999 83.308092 167.997577 614.954566
2025-05-11 18.339537 24.219063 33.268122 49.836749 84.811714 179.605294 785.066800
2025-05-18 17.710165 23.527355 32.581625 49.441478 86.063763 191.171241 1019.679801
2025-05-25 17.029674 22.722055 31.655591 48.500159 85.888093 198.097994 1264.926690
2025-06-01 16.458455 22.060322 30.928576 47.873639 86.369548 207.782866 1674.732360
2025-06-08 15.727406 21.117590 29.679479 46.123958 83.825979 205.133857 1838.462234
2025-06-15 15.610655 21.139255 30.065041 47.647083 89.833770 240.354233 4455.024113
2025-06-22 15.187730 20.651959 29.544660 47.283269 90.843202 255.122604 8711.647719
2025-06-29 14.744760 20.114851 28.909484 46.628193 90.956436 266.007103 20019.748293
2025-07-06 14.171189 19.347184 27.836537 44.980639 88.062324 260.105950 25643.986431
2025-07-13 14.110419 19.410183 28.231210 46.470297 94.417255 309.981035 NaN